M(ake) E(urope) G(reat) A(gain)

On the surface of things, the looming threat of Trump taxes on European goods seems like really bad news. An enfeebled European macro story, weakened by populist-driven Brexit and a war imposed by Putin.

However, whilst an America-First strategy may drive some businesses to reshore in low margin areas of trade, most will not redesign their supply chains for a 2 to 4 year window alone - the reality is that costs for US consumers will simply rise. In fact, even if they wanted to, some cannot. Take Apple Inc for example - with a stated aim to rebalance manufacturing away from China and into other countries such as India, it acknowledged that the process will take years.

Meanwhile, Europe will not (and of course, cannot) stand idly by. It already has retaliatory tariffs ready to roll.

In a more constructive vein, it is worth recognising that this may be seen as an opportunity. With necessity being the mother of invention, we are already seeing European governments and firms near- and re-shoring. Reducing or in some cases working to reduce dependency on the US is now seen as a strategic imperitive. Both EU and UK governments are seeing need to help their own companies by instigating a UK- or EU-first procurement strategy, driving domestic growth. With European governments at last learning from what the US has been doing since the emergence of Silicon Valley, their place as stakeholder clients for startups and SMEs will drive investment and growth.

In three key areas, this need for domestic procurement and consumption provides an open goal for European success:

1. Domestic defense procurement is a clear means of increasing both EU investment and defense capabilities. Increasing defense spending as a % of GDP is meaningless - it should be about recognising outcomes e.g. successful procurement of defense capabilities), as well as economic impact throught purchasing from an emergent defense-tech startup scene across Europe.
2. Energy self reliance / renewables is obvious - accelerating a move to domestic energy production is perfectly aligned with 2030 climate goals. Renewable energy merely represents the derisking of the European energy industry and supply.
3. Culture vs social media - Europe must simply act as one to protect their citizens. Democracy only works with a well informed populous, protected from harm whether socially or through dis- and mis-information. The US political landscape is a stark warning to us all. This can only be achieved through exposing global, digital players to corporate liability for harms, and penal liability for office holders. Yes, kids might be tempted to use a VPN to access content, but to not dampen the system would be negligent.

Of course, Trump will decry these defense mechanisms as anti-American, but they merely represent the mirror image of his view of how countries should look to their own. A rational response to an irrational approach to the post cold-war era attempts at a peaceful, global world order.